Devastating weather events have been witnessed in recent days across India including Uttarakhand and Kerala. A US intelligence assessment has identified India and Pakistan as among 11 countries most vulnerable to their ability to prepare for and respond to environmental and social crises caused by climate change. .
The first ever US National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on climate also says that India and China will play an important role in determining the trajectory of global temperature rise. It even warns that global warming will increase geopolitical tensions and threaten US national security in the period up to 2040.
“China and India are the first and fourth largest carbon emitters, respectively. Both are increasing their total and per capita emissions. The United States and the European Union are second and third,” the report said.
The report identified 11 countries, including India, Pakistan and Afghanistan, as “selected countries of concern”. It has been warned that they could face warmer temperatures, more extreme weather and disruption of ocean patterns.
Intelligence assessments in the context of India and Pakistan suggest that weather variability is pre-existing or fuels new water insecurity. This will probably increase cross-border tensions on groundwater basins.
However, the report said that Pakistan relies on below-surface water from heavily glacier-fed rivers originating in India for most of its irrigation. Continuous data is required from India on river discharge.
The report said, “We believe that cross-border migration will probably increase because climate impacts have placed additional stress on internally displaced populations already under poor governance, violent conflict and environmental degradation. Increased migration is accompanied by drought, The storm is likely to be accompanied by a more intense cyclone.