Thirty wave has started in the country? Corona’s ‘R-value’ continues to increase in these states including Kerala, understand how it is a matter of tension


The ‘R-value’ indicating the speed of spread of corona virus infection in the country is increasing continuously. Kerala and the states of the Northeast are on top in this matter. Due to the largest number of patients treated in Kerala, the R value has remained constant around 1.11 there. While it should be less than one. An increase in the ‘R-value’ is raising concerns about the epidemic re-emerging.

The analysis by researchers at the Chennai-based Institute of Mathematical Sciences states that the country’s two metropolitan cities, Pune and Delhi, have ‘R-values’ close to one. Sitabhra Sinha, who led the research team at the Institute of Mathematical Sciences, said, “The absolute number of patients undergoing treatment in India fluctuates greatly to get a reliable estimate, but the figures point to a close value.” are doing. It may go up or down in the coming days. Kerala has the largest number of patients treated, so the R value has been consistently around 1.11 there.

Sinha further said, “So it seems that Kerala will continue to be on top in this matter in the next few weeks.” The situation is even worse in the Northeast where the R-value is more than one in most states. In the Northeast, only Tripura has an R-value less than one, while Manipur is partially below one. Among other states of India, the R-value in Uttarakhand is pretty close to one these days.

Pune’s bad condition, Delhi’s condition is also not good

In large cities, the R-value in Pune tends to be more than one while in Delhi it is closer to one. In Pune between July 4 and July 20, it was 0.84. At the same time, in Bengaluru it was found to be 0.72 between July 17 and 23. The R-value in Mumbai was 0.74 between July 22 and 24. In Chennai between July 21 and 24, it was 0.94. At the same time, in Kolkata it was 0.86 percent between July 17 and 24.

what is r-value


The R-value or number indicates the ability of the corona virus to spread. The R or ‘effective reproduction number’ is an estimate of how fast the infection is spreading. This number shows how many people, on an average, are likely to be positive from a covid infected person. The R has to be maintained below 1 for the pandemic to end.

This is how it is calculated

An R-value of 0.95 means that every 100 infected people will on average infect 95 others. If the R-value is less than one, it would mean that the number of newly infected people will be less than the number of people infected in the previous period, which means that the number of cases of the disease is decreasing. The lower the R-value, the faster the disease will decrease. Conversely, if R is greater than one then the number of infected will increase in each phase, technically, this is called the phase of the epidemic. The larger this number, the faster the epidemic will spread through the population.

This decreased in the second wave, now increasing

According to the analysis, when the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic was at its peak, the overall R-value in the country was estimated to be 1.37 between March 9 and April 21. It dropped to 1.18 between April 24 and May 1. Then it came down to 1.1 between April 29 and May 7. Between May 9 and May 11, the R value in the country was estimated to be around 0.98. It dropped to 0.82 between May 14 and May 30, and fell to 0.78 between May 15 and June 26. However, the R-value again increased to 0.88 between 20 June and 7 July and further increased to 0.95 between 3 July and 22 July.


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