There is an atmosphere of instability in Afghanistan after the control of Taliban. After the suicide attacks in Kabul, the US retaliated, while France and Britain have sought to create a safe zone for the continuation of humanitarian aid. The cloth has been opened. A few weeks ago, when US President Joe Biden made a statement about the withdrawal of American forces from Afghanistan, it seemed as if the US administration had thought of every chess game. But Biden, facing all-round criticism, is being considered morally guilty of withdrawing troops from the country without devising any alternative arrangements. Afghanistan has once again shown how important America is for security in any corner of the world. After all, it was America who called the 2001 attack on itself a terrorist attack on the entire human civilization and within a few years also said that you are either with America or against them in the fight against those so called terrorists. . The point is absolutely right – in the village, it is the choice of the Chaudhary of the village that what rules should be followed and what should be implemented. These rules are widely used in villages, in the mythical Mirzapur of Kaleen Bhaiya, and also in the international political system. But this system should not be taken as a just system. At that time the whole world had shown solidarity with America and supported it in the fight against terrorism. But the question that remained unheard of is how the war of countries like Russia and India, which had been facing terror for many years before 2001, did not become an anti-terrorist fight. The international community and its institutions have completely failed to provide a common explanation for terrorism. And two decades later, when America is eager to go back from Afghanistan, the same question has come up again? Who is responsible for the safety of the people of Afghanistan after the withdrawal of international troops? Isn’t the security of India and its neighboring countries like Afghanistan important? America’s Ekla Chalo Re Before the withdrawal from Afghanistan, it seems that the US has neither consulted with neighboring countries of Afghanistan, nor consulted fellow members of the Security Council in the United Nations, nor consulted its NATO allies. Now the entire government of Afghanistan has collapsed like a palace of cards and the Taliban have untimely taken over the country. But no one knows whether the new government has to be recognized or not. The future political structure is not fixed, it will be decided by force and diplomacy in the coming days.
Afghanistan has become the playground of Taliban and big powers. As far as Russia is concerned, first of all, Vladimir Putin must have been smiling seeing America in the same condition as Soviet Russia had come out of Afghanistan badly, the old KGB officer and the staunch nationalist who remained. If we look in short term, it is good news for Russia that America left its neighborhood, that too dispassionately. But this is not enough for Russia. Russia, the custodian of the countries of Central Asia, will never want its allies like Tajikistan to have problems with the Taliban. Russia has always supported the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan. Russia’s support for the descendants of Ahmed Shah Masood is still there and the same fighters are taking on the Taliban in Panjshir today. Increased difficulties for India Perhaps Russia is thinking seriously about this and if it happens then it will be good news for India. Taliban is another name of threat to India. On the one hand, Taliban is an ally of Pakistan and secondly it has been instigating radicalization in Kashmir, it has direct links with Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Taiba. Perhaps for these reasons, the establishment of a hot-line between India’s Prime Minister Modi and Russian President Putin regarding Afghanistan can make a big difference. Iran will be happy too because America’s presence in the neighborhood also stings it like a gritty in the eye. But the harmony of its interests on the issue of Taliban is more than that of Russia and India and this is also good news for India and all the supporters of peace system. As far as tying the Taliban to the limits is concerned, Gulf countries like Qatar and UAE can play a strong role. And although Saudi Arabia hasn’t said much so far, it can also play a big role. India’s relations with all these countries have strengthened during Modi’s tenure. But the role of these countries will come only when the situation crosses the limit.
And even thinking about that situation, one gets goosebumps. Benefit of China and Pakistan Two countries have benefited the most from the arrival of Taliban. Perhaps this advantage seems more strategic, it is very difficult to convert it in the ground reality. This is possible only if we accept that the Taliban will not apply their intelligence and will determine the foreign and security policy as told by China and Pakistan. But China and Pakistan also know that the Taliban is not going to listen to them and this thing must be troubling them somewhere. At present, there is a wave of happiness among Pakistani leaders and policy-makers. While Imran Khan finds the victory of the Taliban free from the shackles of slavery, the picture of the ISI chief offering prayers with Taliban leaders has come to the fore. With the arrival of the Taliban, Pakistan’s strategic role will increase, along with America and the countries of the West, it will also be able to play the role of mediator in the case of Taliban. Compared to India, it will also get an advantage in the regional equation. And there is no doubt that the western border for India has now again reached the position it was two decades ago. Russia and China’s new equation Amidst the rapidly changing diplomatic situation in Afghanistan, the harmony between Russia and China has increased. There has been a general consensus between these two countries for years that the interference of any outside power in their neighbourhood is not a good thing. Russia and China have expressed their displeasure, sometimes hidden and sometimes outspoken. Both countries want their dominion over their neighboring countries, especially Central Asia. So the return of America from Afghanistan is good news for them. To some extent, Pakistan will also get the benefit of reconciliation between Russia and China because it has good relations with China.
But if one tries to assess the issue of Afghanistan in a longer perspective, then the reconciliation between Russia and China is not natural. Russia’s interference in Afghanistan’s politics is decades old. It is also clear from recent reports that Russia is not completely sure about the Taliban. Russia has been decimated by Islamic extremism and will not want to return to those days. There is little prospect of cooperation between Russia and China (and Pakistan) more than broadly speaking. China can meet the needs of the Taliban, China’s relations with the Taliban and the mail meetings in the past are also disturbing for India. China’s economic-trade investments in Pakistan have increased over the past two decades, especially under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Along with protecting its economic interests, China will try to increase them further. And he has no hesitation in talking to the Taliban about this. China can also meet the Taliban’s need for money due to its economic power. There is no hope of peace in Afghanistan at the moment. The support of Pakistan and China mobilized against India to the Taliban, whose hatred of India is old, is dangerous in itself. The US leaving Afghanistan on that is not a good sign for India overall. India will have to show readiness in diplomacy along with tight security on its borders and at the same time keep an eye on every new equation. Combining these fragments of the picture, a frightening picture is formed, to break the magic of which strategically and strategically such a self-reliant India will have to come forward, which is ready to take more responsibility in its own interest. (Rahul Mishra is Senior Professor of International Politics at the Asia-Europe Institute of the University of Malaya).